Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
