Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
